The Role of Hold in NASCAR Betting
Just how much are the books pocketing for themselves?
When you think about sports betting, you probably start by thinking about a moneyline. Either the team you bet on will win or they won’t. If it’s an even matchup, your sportsbook is probably charging -110 for both sides, or 52.4%. Because that adds up to 104.8%, you can tell that your sportsbook is pocketing an extra 4.8%—which is what we call the “hold.”
In theory, if half of all bets come in on one side and half on the other, the book has made a tidy 4.8% profit. This rarely happens. Because we can’t tell what the book makes on each bet for that reason, when I talk about hold in this article, I’m talking about theoretical hold.
Many NASCAR betting markets add another layer of complexity. Instead of a field of two teams competing for one win, we’ve got 36-plus drivers competing for one win—and 10 possible top-10 spots. This can make estimating hold difficult, but that’s why I’m here.
The Role of Hold in NASCAR Betting
In this article, we’ll walk through three NASCAR betting markets on three different books. We’ll run through the full pre-qualifying Daytona 500 odds board at Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel to figure out the rate the books are charging for the season opener.
It’s worth noting that books’ hold rates may change throughout the season, so don’t treat this deep dive as gospel. I hope that you’ll finish this article knowing how to compute the hold yourself. Getting a sense of which books charge more (and for what market) is an essential exercise for the regular NASCAR bettor.
You want to concentrate your liquidity where you can get the best number. While some books with low hold will also post more efficient odds, over the long run, the books that charge the least hold will generally also offer the best prices, especially for favorites.
Hold on NASCAR Outright Markets
Let’s start with the most basic market: outrights. Only one driver in a field of up to 41 can win. When there are 36 cars in the field, that’s a 2.8% chance; with 41, that drops to 2.4%. But one thing doesn’t change: All drivers in the race have a cumulative 100% chance to win the race.
As with the moneyline example above, the implied probability of all drivers’ outright odds won’t add up to 100%. It’ll add up to more. But because there are so many more options, the books can get away with charging a higher hold. Further, because not every driver is likely to attract equal action, they need to change their risk calculus.
Let’s take a look at the first 10 drivers’ outright odds on DraftKings:
We’re just 10 drivers in, and we’ve already got 70.9% of implied probability! If we complete this process for the rest of the field at our three designated sportsbooks, we find that the cumulative hold for this year’s Daytona 500 outright markets clocks in at a rate much higher than you’ll see on two-way markets:
If you’re placing an outright bet on this year’s Great American Race, theoretical hold suggests that you’re likelier to find a better deal at FanDuel than either DraftKings or Caesars. The top of the board bears this out: the favorite is 10-1 (9.1%) on the latter books but only 12-1 (7.7%) on the former.
Hold on NASCAR Top 10 Markets
The math gets slightly trickier when we look at the top-10 market. Instead of every driving having a cumulative probability of 100%, we have 10 times that amount, or 1000%.
When you look at the odds board on DraftKings, you’ll notice that a considerable portion of the field will cost you more than 50% to score a top-10 result:
Yes, that’s 18 drivers with better-than-coinflip odds of scoring a top-10 result. If you were to scroll to the bottom of the board, you’d find that we bottom out at only +360 (21.7%)—barely better than the raw odds of a driver scoring a top-10 in a 40-car field (25%).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, DraftKings is pocketing a significant share of the top-10 action:
Again, this hold, as with all hold discussed here, is theoretical—DraftKings isn’t scoring a 970% return on the top-10 markets because very few people are laying the -150 (60%) or higher for the favorites.
But even if we crossed out every driver with odds shorter than -110, you’ll still see a meaningful rake at most books. For illustration’s sake, when we filter out the drivers north of that number, we would get:
So, even if nobody were to bet on a driver with top-10 odds worse than you’d find on pick’em markets, Caesars and DraftKings would probably still be turning a profit, and FanDuel, because that -129% doesn’t count such a significant portion of the field that could still finish inside the top-10, is probably doing fine, too.
Hold on NASCAR Manufacturer Markets
If you’ve been reading my NASCAR content over the years, you should know that I put a lot of my action down on the winning manufacturer. While drivers’ talents mean a lot in this sport, those who spend time thinking about their NASCAR betting strategies know that certain equipment favors certain tracks.
With only three manufacturers—Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota—to pick from, the books necessarily charge less hold. Here’s what this market looks like for the Daytona 500 (I swapped out BetMGM for FanDuel, which doesn’t have this market live yet):
The lower the theoretical hold, the easier it is to find an edge. If you haven’t been paying attention to hold when placing your NASCAR bets or formulating your NASCAR betting strategy, there’s no better time to start than this season.